In Brief

Notable facts and figures on the state of the commercial real estate industry, culled from media reports and other sources.

INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

10

The number of “current and emerging issues expected to have the most significant impact on all sectors of real estate,” according to a survey by the Counselors of Real Estate. The top 10 issues are:

1. Inflation and interest rates
2. Geopolitical risk
3. Hybrid work
4. Supply chain disruptions
5. Energy
6. Labor shortage strain
7. The great housing imbalance
8. Regulatory uncertainty
9. Cybersecurity interruptions
10. ESG requirements forcing change

OFFICE

11%

The percentage of total office space in the U.S. facing lease expirations in 2022, according to JLL research. That represents about 243 million square feet; JLL says it’s “the most office space to hit the market in a single year since real-estate services firm JLL began tracking this data in 2015,” according to an April report in the Wall Street Journal.

57%

Percentage of suburban office space nationwide that is now “so old as to be functionally obsolete,” according to JLL research cited in a July 2022 article in the New York Times on the redevelopment potential of office parks that are outside of urban cores.

3

The number of days a week that Google employees are now required to be in their offices based on a policy that started in April. In a June article in Forbes, Kyle Crown, president of Crown Commercial PM, notes: “Since the company is widely regarded as a bellwether and standard-bearer in corporate culture and typically seen as at the forefront of employee empowerment, it follows that many major corporations may be back in-person soon, which bodes well for the future of office real estate.” 

INDUSTRIAL

1.2

Billion Total square footage in Prologis’ industrial portfolio after acquiring Duke Realty Corp. for $26 billion in June. According to the Wall Street Journal, the blockbuster deal “highlights a widening gulf between those who think e-commerce growth has a long way to go and those who think it is running out of steam.”

30

Million The total square footage of industrial space that Amazon could sublease after the company overbuilt its logistics network during the past few years, according to multiple media reports this summer. 

62%

The percentage decline from September 2021 to July 2022 in the spot price to ship a 40-foot container from China to the U.S., according to Freightos, a booking and payments platform for international freight. The price in September 2021 briefly soared over $20,000 per container; today, it is closer to $7,000. However, as Axios noted, “that’s still more than three times the average pre-pandemic cost.”

FINANCIAL

100%

Percentage of banks that passed the Federal Reserve Board’s annual bank stress test in June. According to a release from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, this year’s test included “a severe global recession with substantial stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets.” In this year's hypothetical scenario, real estate prices drop 40% and stock prices fall 55% as unemployment hits 10% and GDP falls sharply. The Federal Reserve's annual stress tests began in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis from 2007-2009.

Future NAIOP Events

• CRE.Converge 2022, October 9-12, Chicago, Illinois
• Chapter Leadership and Legislative Retreat 2023, January 30-February 1, 2023, Washington, D.C.
• I.CON West 2023, March 8-9, Long Beach, California
• I.CON East 2023, June 7-8, Jersey City, New Jersey